In recent weeks, several analysts have pointed out that the main driver of index demand is not the Nasdaq 100, but the S&P 500, though this is not expected until at least next year, as the S&P 500's earnings screening and 12-month listing rule prevent SpaceX from being included for at least a year.
Jeffrey analyst Jane Gibbons stated that despite this, SpaceX's low free float will also weaken the price impact of its inclusion in the index; given the low free float, the index weighting will not be as impactful as expected. Insider lock-up periods will expire in the coming weeks and months, potentially adding selling pressure to the stock price, offsetting the buying pressure from index inclusion. Some restrictions will be lifted in batches between 70 and 135 days after the June 12 IPO, while the lock-up period for CEO Musk and some other major investors will expire 366 days after the IPO. Susquehanna analyst Charles Minevino described this as "short-term overhead pressure" on the stock. Regardless of how the stock price fluctuates in the coming days and weeks, investors are undoubtedly preparing contingency plans. “If you look at options trading over the past five days, today’s volume is 2.5 times the normal level,” said Cboe’s Kinahan. “People are trying to hedge downside risk. Many are speculating before rebalancing.”
