On July 7th, the Buffett Indicator (CSI 300 market capitalization/GDP) fell 92.11%, fluctuating near its May high and the upper end of its ten-year trading range. The CSI 300 Equity Risk Premium (ERP), a stock-bond ratio indicator, was 5.26%, having remained around 5.2% since July, placing it at the lower end of its trading range since October 2024, suggesting that the stock market's yield advantage over government bonds is not currently significant.
-------- Note: 1. The Buffett Indicator compares total stock market capitalization to GDP to determine if the stock market is currently overvalued. Generally, 70-100% is considered a normal valuation; below this range is considered undervalued, and above is considered overvalued.
2. The risk premium (ERP) of the CSI 300 Index is mainly compared with the returns of the CSI 300 and the yield of government bonds. Statistics from the past 10 years show that this indicator has a clear inverse relationship with the stock index. Every time the stock market is in the bottom area, the risk premium exceeds 6%. That is, when ERP ≥ 6%, the stock market has investment value, while when ERP ≤ 4%, the stock market is often close to or at a stage high, the investment value is low, and there is even a risk of correction.
