Following Iran's attack on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States revoked sanctions waivers that had previously allowed Iran to resume oil exports and announced a new round of military strikes. This news had the expected impact on the market: US Treasury yields rose and oil prices surged.
The market had remained calm previously because investors believed oil shipments would return to normal and that the US would not escalate the conflict into a larger-scale ground war. This assessment still appears valid, but it also means that the US is finding it more difficult to deter Iran from retaliatory actions such as closing the Strait of Hormuz through military threats.
Statistics show that the number of reports about the Strait of Hormuz on Monday had fallen to its lowest level since the start of this round of conflict. However, shipping data shows that the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains far below normal levels and has recently begun to decline again.
Jean Ergas, an analyst at Tigress Financial Partners, pointed out that the market's previous celebrations of "victory" were premature. "The decline in crude oil futures prices is due to the market absorbing a one-off surge in excess capacity. But not everyone is willing to let their ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz," he argues. He believes that instead of focusing on the traditional VAR (Value at Risk) indicator, it's more important to pay attention to "OAR (Oil at Risk)," as tanker operators are now forced to form escort fleets to cross the Strait of Hormuz, incurring additional costs.
Meanwhile, Iran's state funeral for the late Supreme Leader Khamenei serves as a show of strength, signaling to the world that its regime remains stable and its system unshaken. Iran seems eager to prove to the world that the United States has not won. This almost certainly means that market volatility will continue, forcing investors to readjust their expectations.
