Geopolitical risks have acted as the perfect catalyst for a "valuation bubble burst." In the AI-Capex-driven bull market of the past few months, the discounted cash flow of tech stocks was highly dependent on a low-interest-rate, liquidity-driven environment. When the deteriorating US-Iran situation triggered concerns about a resurgence of inflation, the long-term US Treasury yield curve rapidly steepened, directly increasing the cost of equity capital for tech stocks. Global macro hedge funds are rapidly rebalancing their positions, implementing a defensive maneuver of "selling growth stocks and buying defensive stocks," with funds flowing from the tech sector, which lacks geopolitical cash flow support, to hard assets that truly benefit from rising oil prices and expanded defense spending.
