Trump criticized Iranian leaders for lying, but this is not the root cause of his predicament in the Strait of Hormuz; his troubles stem from his own lies. The war Trump launched against Iran on February 28th did not end with the victory he claimed. The ceasefire agreement he agreed to (the memorandum of understanding) did not signify Iran's "unconditional surrender"; quite the opposite. The document's ambiguous wording allowed both sides to continue pursuing their respective war objectives through other means.
This memorandum of understanding provided an opportunity for both the US and Iran to test their ability to enforce their will in the Strait, but so far, the results are inconclusive. The US attempted to increase tanker traffic through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, one method being to disable tankers' transponders. However, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard successfully attacked some of these tankers, meaning that without further agreements, tanker traffic is unlikely to return to pre-war levels in the long term.
Undoubtedly, the Pentagon possesses military options to break this deadlock. These options were reportedly previously presented to Trump but were rejected. These options are hardly ideal; it's hard to imagine that if bombing over the past few months has failed, then bombing for days, weeks, or even months would be successful. Equally perplexing is why the costs to Gulf allies for escalation, considered extremely high before the ceasefire, have now become acceptable. Therefore, we may be facing a long period of uncertainty, a state that is neither peace nor war.
(The above views are excerpted from commentator Marc Champion)
