Goldman Sachs said in a July 8 report that renewed disruption to Strait of
Hormuz shipping could impede restoration of Middle East oil supply. Goldman
estimates Persian Gulf crude output in June remained about 10.5 mln bpd below
pre-conflict levels. Despite producers beginning to restart shut wells last
month, Goldman warned Hormuz interruptions could slow recovery: recent tanker
attacks underscore elevated transit risk and, with ceasefire status unclear,
shippers may hesitate to transit, weighing on flows. Goldman estimates flows
have fallen to roughly 70% of normal after the recent attacks; earlier, within
10 days of the strait’s reopening, flows had climbed to over 80% of pre-conflict
levels. Flows and oil prices face two-way risk: if the 60-day talks continue and
shippers obtain security guarantees and Iran secures new waivers for sales,
flows could recover by end-July; if talks break down and attacks escalate, flows could fall further.
