Energy:
1. Russia bans diesel exports, the ban will last until July 31.
2. Azerbaijani BTC light crude oil shipments in August will fall to their lowest level since 2008.
3. National Statistical Office: Domestic gasoline prices fell 4.9% in June due to fluctuations in international market prices.
4. Citi: Maintains its base case forecast, expecting Brent crude oil to average $75/barrel in the third quarter of 2026.
5. The EU plans to provide more flexibility for industry in its carbon market reforms, with the reform plan to be announced on July 17.
6. India and Australia issued a joint statement, pledging to further strengthen energy trade and support the continued flow of energy products.
7. HSBC: Lowered its 2026 Brent crude oil forecast to $80/barrel. The baseline scenario assumes that Gulf exports will return to normal by the end of September.
8. Colombia's National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH): Colombian oil production fell 2.8% year-on-year in May, averaging 728,835 barrels per day.
9. APA: Projects an average realized price of $93.2 per barrel for US crude oil and $99.9 per barrel for international crude oil in the second quarter of 2026.
10. US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserves for the week ending July 3rd were at their lowest level since the week ending April 29, 1983. EIA crude oil inventories ended a 10-week decline.
11. Goldman Sachs: If the 60-day negotiations continue and Iranian oil waivers are reinstated, Persian Gulf oil supplies are expected to recover by the end of July; this will require an increase of 6.6 million barrels per day in oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Precious Metals and Mining:
1. Citigroup: Projects an average copper price of $14,500 per tonne in the fourth quarter of 2026.
2. National Bureau of Statistics: Affected by fluctuations in international market prices, domestic gold jewelry prices fell by 8.7% in June.
3. World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs saw a net outflow of $8.9 billion in June, compared to a net inflow of $8 billion in the first half of the year.
4. Data from the Central Bank of Russia shows that the country's gold reserves have declined for six consecutive months, falling below the $300 billion mark at the end of June.
5. According to a joint statement, Australia and India have reached the necessary administrative arrangements to ensure Australian uranium exports to India.
6. Venezuelan interim president Rodriguez has sent a letter to the UK requesting the lifting of the freeze on Venezuelan gold held by the Bank of England.
Iran Situation:
1. The US military completed a new round of strikes against Iran, attacking approximately 90 military targets along the Iranian coast.
2. Iran stated that it will close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked again; it will expand its response if the US attacks again.
3. Trump stated that the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has ended; the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may be reinstated; the strikes against Iran slightly increased oil prices, but the increase will be limited to $2. Other:
1. Italian coffee roaster Lavasa: Coffee prices are expected to remain high, with continued volatility.
2. Trump calls for cutting off trade with Spain, criticizing Spain as a bad ally.
