The IEA warned on Friday that a recent escalation in US‑Iran hostilities could
overturn its projection that oil markets will move into a substantial supply
surplus in 2027. After the Strait of Hormuz reopened in June following a US‑Iran
agreement, global supply rose by 4.10 mln b/d but remains 9.40 mln b/d below
pre‑conflict levels; at the peak of the crisis the strait’s effective closure
cut flows by as much as 14.00 mln b/d. The agency forecasts a 7.50 mln b/d
supply increase next year but says that outlook depends on improved transit
through Hormuz. The July 7‑8 escalation has clouded that view and could negate
the expected shift to surplus.
