Escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran cloud the outlook and could threatening the IEA’s forecast of a global oil supply surplus in 2027.

Japan's finance minister Katayama said on Friday she will seek to restore market confidence by lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio and urged the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) and other pension funds to increase allocations to domestic assets, saying we want the public to directly benefit from Japan's economic growth. Market moves: the yen strengthened, USD/JPY hit an intraday low of 161.28 (down 0.67%); Japan's Nikkei 225 rose as much as 2.4%; 10- and 20-year JGB yields each fell about 10bps intraday. Institutional takes: Daiwa Securities says Katayama's comments could trigger a simultaneous rebound in the yen, equities and JGBs, noting GPIF's potential reallocation is market-significant after her explicit mention of GPIF portfolio management. Lanze Securities notes GPIF—managing roughly ¥300 tln—moving into Japanese financial assets would be bullish for domestic equities and could prompt follow-through from overseas investors. Crédit Agricole warns Katayama appears to prefer structural measures over outright FX intervention; a durable yen reversal would likely require concrete steps such as a more aggressive BoJ tightening, fiscal consolidation or non-debt financing, and an actual GPIF allocation shift. Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management says reducing foreign-asset exposure would ease yen depreciation, support bonds and lift stocks, but lack of detail risks a reversal if actions fall short of market expectations. Robeco expects a net positive for the yen and local assets and reduced selling pressure at the ultra-long end; GPIF cutting foreign exposure would further bolster the 10y+ curve and flatten the steepest segments. FX dealer Gaitame.com attributes the yen bounce to position-covering by overseas investors after government policy guidance and Katayama's GPIF comments, but warns the size of any GPIF move is unclear and today’s gains may be front-run, leaving follow-through dependent on overseas investor reaction.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it fired 10 ballistic missiles, destroying an adversary command-and-control center in West Asia and Jordan’s Al Azraq air base. The IRGC warned that if the US launches another attack, other US bases in the region will likewise be exposed to heavy fire.