The IEA said sustained Ukrainian attacks on refineries, storage and transport
infrastructure have weakened Russia's output outlook, prompting cuts to Russia
supply forecasts of 85,000 b/d for this year and 150,000 b/d for next year; the
agency now sees an average of 8.8 mln b/d over the forecast period. It projects
Russian oil output of 8.9 mln b/d this year and 8.8 mln b/d in 2027, down from
9.2 mln b/d in 2025. The IEA noted June crude output rose 120,000 b/d from May
to 8.86 mln b/d, roughly 0.9 mln b/d below the OPEC+ quota.
