A memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran was signed less than a
month ago, yet both sides have already carried out multiple rounds of reciprocal
strikes and show signs of escalation, prompting concern over a breakdown in
talks or a wider flare-up. Analysts say the confrontation is fundamentally a
contest over the Strait of Hormuz: each side is seeking additional leverage for
future negotiations while simultaneously having incentives to avoid a major
escalation. Interaction is likely to remain a cycle of alternating strikes and
talks, with limited attacks used to press bargaining positions rather than
provoke full-scale war.
