Thomas Warrick, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, stated that the US and Iran have "very different goals," and beyond a lack of trust, there is a "complete misunderstanding." The problem lies in the sheer size of their differences. The US and Iran interpret things very differently for cultural reasons. Their goals are very different, and their understanding of their respective priorities is also very different. This obviously increases the difficulty of mediation, but also puts countries in a position where they would rather resolve their differences through fighting than peaceful means. Furthermore, Iran is unwilling to relinquish its claim to control and profit from traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been considered international waters for over 1,000 years. Allowing Iran to control the strait while granting free use to the rest of the world is clearly impossible.
The disagreement over how to interpret the memorandum of understanding is not a linguistic issue, but rather a lack of "real consensus" between the two sides in recent negotiations.
However, Warrick believes the US will not launch a large-scale attack on Tehran "immediately." “I think we’re more likely to see a resurgence of the Cold War. Attacks tend to happen on Thursdays, Fridays, and Saturdays. Trump will then give a speech on Sunday or Monday, trying to salvage the current peace and hoping the markets will react in his direction. Then, on Tuesday or Wednesday, things will calm down a bit—but the conflict will resume a few days later,” Warrick said. “I think this current pattern could continue for weeks, even months, until the US election on November 3,” he added.
