Atlantic Council senior fellow Thomas Warrick said the U.S. and Iran have “very
different” objectives, deep mutual mistrust and “complete misunderstanding,” and
did not reach a genuine consensus in recent talks. He said Iran is unwilling to
relinquish its claim to control the Strait of Hormuz, complicating any
negotiated settlement. Warrick does not expect an immediate large-scale U.S.
strike; he predicts a recurring pattern of episodic attacks (often Thurs–Sat),
U.S. speeches aimed at calming tensions (Sun–Mon), brief lulls (Tue–Wed) and
renewed flare-ups, a cycle he said could continue for weeks or months,
potentially through the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections.
