Saudi geopolitical analyst Salman Al-Ansari stated that given the extent to which Iran's military power has been weakened, its network of proxies in the Middle East has been crippled, and its economy has been stifled in recent months, Iran's ambition to become a new regional hegemon is delusional. All that remains is bullying, piracy, noise, and the ability to act as a spoiler. This may be true, but the US has so far failed to demonstrate the capability to forcefully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Currently, the new round of military activity between the two sides has not escalated into a full-blown war. The US has not targeted Tehran, while Iran has limited its attacks to largely ineffective strikes against US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.
Iran has not resumed attacks on the two most powerful Gulf states, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. But this does not mean that the violence in the coming weeks will necessarily remain under control.
“Fundamentally, the Iranians don’t believe Trump wants to restart the war, so they will keep putting pressure on them. They genuinely believe Trump won’t ‘beat them up,’” said Marc Polymeropoulos, a former senior CIA official (responsible for Middle East affairs). “But there are too many things that could go wrong. If one of the exchanges results in mass casualties, with American soldiers killed, Trump will go crazy. So it’s not without risk.” Adding to the complexity, it’s unclear who is in charge since Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba, was injured and has neither appeared in video nor in person. Several hardline factions vying for power in Iran have sharply criticized the memorandum of understanding signed with the US last month and have a clear incentive to escalate the situation and undermine the agreement. “Iran’s decision-making is in complete disarray right now,” said Mehran Haghirian, executive director of research at the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation think tank. “Clearly, there’s a faction that doesn’t support negotiations. Many of them want to prolong this situation as much as possible because every day that passes is consolidating the regime and limiting the space for post-war political reforms.”
