Military and diplomatic analyst Alexandru Khudistianu stated that the current struggle between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz is "not new," but there is a serious risk of further escalation.
While Iran has long engaged in tit-for-tat disruptions of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and attempted to exert influence, Khudistianu believes that the US attack on Iran in February "provided Iran with excellent conditions to control the Strait of Hormuz, which it is trying to turn into a tool of coercion, claiming near-absolute control over it."
He pointed out that the US Navy is countering this Iranian strategy, having successfully escorted several ships safely through the southern side of the Strait of Hormuz, the so-called Oman shipping route, and has responded with widespread strikes against the Iranian coast in response to the Iranian attacks on merchant ships.
“However, it is clear that the current situation is unlikely to continue,” Hudistiyanu added. “In my estimation, we are probably in one of the most risky periods in the two or three months since the actual ceasefire in April. The escalating hardline stance of both sides in pursuit of their maximum interests could tilt the situation toward a more active phase of conflict, which has not yet ended.”
