Military and diplomatic analyst Alexandru Hudistianu said the U.S.-Iran contest
over the Strait of Hormuz is not new but carries a serious escalation risk. He
argued February U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran gave Tehran favorable conditions to
try to assert control of the Strait as a coercive tool, with Tehran claiming
near-absolute authority over the waterway. The U.S. Navy has been escorting
multiple vessels via the southern Oman route and has launched broad strikes on
Iranian coastal areas in response to attacks on commercial ships. Hudistianu
warned the current pattern is unlikely to hold and estimated the two-to-three
months since a de facto ceasefire in April may be one of the highest-risk
periods, saying continued hardline brinkmanship could tip the confrontation into
a more active conflict phase.
