Analysts predict that SK Hynix's free cash flow is expected to exceed $300 billion this year and next, as the memory chip supply shortage may continue until 2027. Everyone is now eager to profit from this cash cow, starting with the South Korean government, which sees it as a panacea for its domestic economic and social problems. Of course, the US also wants a piece of the pie. Commerce Secretary Lutnick has been urging SK Hynix to expand its production in the US. Perhaps under political pressure, SK Chairman Chey Tae-won has pledged to invest far more than the $35 billion the company has already invested.
SK Hynix has set a clear goal to double its wafer capacity within five years. A large influx of new capacity into the market over the next five years could disrupt the fragile supply-demand balance. SK Hynix is currently raking in profits, but three years ago it was operating at a loss. The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical; a fall from peak to trough can take less than two years. If SK Hynix cannot continue to generate excess profits, retail investors who rushed in may ultimately face losses. The recent surge in forced liquidations suggests that some novice investors may have been drawn into a high-risk gamble they haven't yet grasped the rules of. American investors, having entered the market later, may need to proceed with even greater caution.
