Analyst Divyang Shah says the Middle East conflict has become zero-sum across
multiple dossiers—Lebanon, control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s enriched
uranium and frozen assets—so one side’s gain implies the other’s clear loss,
shrinking scope for compromise. This week the dispute over maritime control
moved to the front line: US efforts to preserve free passage via an Oman route
directly conflict with Iran’s intent to keep shipping on the northern Iran
corridor. Attacks have specifically targeted vessels using the Oman route; over
the past 24 hours the US has escorted a tanker convoy that had shut off AIS
signals through the route while responding with restrained military strikes.
April 9 ceasefire and June 17 memorandum created a temporary window that let
Iran fortify positions and redeploy concealed missiles, and let the US clear
ships and export urgent cargoes including crude. Bloomberg reports that of 109
non‑Iranian large tankers in the Gulf when the war began, only one remained; 50
left on June 18 or later. With Iran likely seeking to reassert control and block
normalization of the Oman corridor, escalation risk is rising as the US conducts
successive strike rounds. Implied volatility has fallen since the March/April
peak, but the renewed contest for Strait control increases the case for
re‑pricing oil/shipping risk premia and volatility.
