Barclays analysts said rising oil prices — after US strikes on Iranian targets
and Iranian attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz at the weekend —
could prompt Bank of England MPC members to signal a bias toward rate hikes in
coming months. They warned escalating Middle East tensions and this week’s oil
gains raise the risk of stronger inflationary pressure, a focus for MPC members.
LSEG data shows markets have fully priced a 25bp hike in 2026 and assign a 28%
probability of an additional 25bp by year-end.
