South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance said on Tuesday it has raised its
2026 GDP forecast to 3.0% from a January projection of 2.0%, citing strong
semiconductor exports and fiscal stimulus including a supplementary budget to
offset Middle East conflict shocks. Last year’s growth was 1.1%. The ministry
now expects average consumer inflation in 2026 of 2.6%, up from 2.1% previously;
it sees H2 inflation easing if geopolitical tensions ease and oil falls, but
flags upside risk from fragile Middle East peace and weather-driven energy and
agricultural price volatility. It projects 2027 GDP and inflation at 2.2% each.
Exports remain the main growth driver on sustained chip demand. The ministry
forecasts a record 2026 current-account surplus of $290bn, well above its prior
$135bn estimate.
