Strait of Hormuz closure and renewed US‑Iran attacks lifted geopolitical risk
premium, pushing crude to lead commodity gains. Brent futures rallied more than
9% overnight; China’s domestic front‑month crude contract rose above 500
yuan/barrel. Traders cite tightened physical flows and elevated risk as drivers;
watch US‑Iran developments — any de‑escalation signals could spur further
volatility. The US announced a blockade of Iranian ports effective 04:00 on the
15th and said it would resume a blockade campaign, imposing a 20% levy on all
cargo movements. Washington says the measure applies to all vessels regardless
of flag and covers Iran’s entire coastline, including ports and oil terminals,
while allowing neutral ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz to or from
non‑Iranian destinations; humanitarian shipments are permitted subject to
inspection. Shipping data show tanker transits through Hormuz fell to a
two‑month low in the past 24 hours. Separately, Iran’s oil sales remain slow and
independent refiners are reportedly switching to cheaper, Iraqi, UAE and Qatari
crude, reinforcing upward pressure on prices amid rising conflict intensity.
