US Dollar
1. Fed mouthpiece: Core CPI is more important to the Fed.
2. Markets are nearly fully pricing in a September rate hike by the Fed, expecting two hikes by the end of March next year.
3. Fed Governor Waller: If core inflation remains strong this week, the FOMC will have to consider raising rates in the near term; he suggests delaying the release of the dot plot until the day after the FOMC meeting; he advocates abandoning the 2% inflation target and favoring a range of 1.5%-2.5%.
Euro
1. Economists lowered their 2026 growth forecasts for the Eurozone due to the Middle East conflict.
2. Market pricing shows that the ECB's rate hike expectations have been revised upwards, and a 25 basis point hike before September is now fully priced in.
Japanese Yen
1. The Japanese government will emphasize respect for the Bank of Japan's independence in its economic blueprint.
2. CEO of the Japan Exchange Group: I personally believe the yen is far below its fair value.
3. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: If the asset management environment changes drastically, adjustments to the government pension fund's investment portfolio may be considered. South Korean Won
1. South Korea plans to ease foreign exchange controls to promote the internationalization of the won.
2. The Bank of Korea is closely monitoring the risks of record-high NDF (November Default Swap) transactions.
3. A stronger won has spurred buying of the US dollar on dips, with South Korean bank dollar deposits reaching a more than three-year high.
4. South Korean Ministry of Finance: South Korean chipmakers and shipbuilders have been selling large amounts of dollars in the forward market.
5. The South Korean government raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 3%, citing a "supercycle" in the chip industry.
6. A Reuters poll shows that 36 out of 37 economists expect the Bank of Korea to raise its benchmark interest rate to 2.75% at its July 16 meeting. 28 out of 31 economists expect the Bank of Korea to raise the benchmark interest rate to 3.00% by the end of the year.
Other
1. Governor of the Central Bank of Hungary: There is room for further rate cuts this summer.
2. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway: Further reduction in monetary stimulus may be necessary.
3. Indonesian Central Bank Deputy Governor: Bank Indonesia will continue to uphold its commitment to maintaining the stability of the rupiah to encourage foreign capital inflows.
4. OPEC Monthly Report: Maintained its 2026 global economic growth forecast at 3.1% and its 2027 global economic growth forecast at 3.2%.
5. Reuters poll: Economists expect the Bank of Canada to not adjust its interest rate policy before 2027. Some economists said they could not rule out the possibility of a future interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada.
