Kpler said Ukrainian drone attacks have reduced Russian refinery throughput to a
21-year low of about 3.8 mln bpd. The firm expects Q3 refinery runs to remain
subdued, with only limited recovery as ongoing strikes and repair work constrain
operations. Cumulative damage has sharply raised offline capacity: as of
mid‑July roughly 4.3 mln bpd of capacity was offline or affected, about 58% of
Russia’s refining capacity, and an estimated 1.5–2.0 mln bpd of processing
capability is fully out of operation. Kpler forecasts a modest rebound to around
4.3 mln bpd in August as maintenance eases, but says continued drone attacks
pose significant downside risk.
