RBC expects the Bank of Canada to keep the overnight rate at 2.25% on Wednesday,
marking a sixth consecutive hold after 50bp of cuts in Sept–Oct last year. RBC
says the recent oil-price spike has not shown signs of evolving into a broader,
persistent inflation shock, while Canadian growth and the labor market have
improved: Q1 GDP was weaker than expected but Q2 momentum strengthened, May–June
jobs data point to stabilization, and consumer spending remains resilient. On
this basis RBC expects per-capita growth to gradually improve and the BoC to
keep rates unchanged throughout 2026.