US Dollar
1. US ADP employment change for the week ending June 27 was 19,750, compared to 21,000 in the previous week.
2. US CPI fell for the first time since 2020, while the core index remained flat. Markets reduced bets on a Fed rate hike.
3. A Bank of America fund manager survey showed that 83% of investors expect the Fed not to raise interest rates before the US midterm elections in November.
4. Fed Chairman Warsh: Committed to ending the era of high inflation, will closely monitor the impact of AI. Markets will be fully informed if the balance sheet is adjusted.
Euro
1. German Ministry of Economics: Corporate bankruptcy rate remains unusually high.
2. European Central Bank: Foreign exchange reserves increased by €500 million, reaching €347.6 billion.
3. ECB Governing Council member Koch: The ECB will take necessary measures to bring medium-term inflation down to 2%.
Pound Sterling
1. Bank of England Governor Bailey: The major problem facing the UK is economic growth; the UK's debt level is not too high.
2. Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of England before September. Interest rate futures indicate the market expects the Bank of England to tighten policy by approximately 50 basis points by December.
Other:
1. Polish Central Bank Governor: Poland is more likely to raise interest rates than cut them.
2. Bank of America survey: Global fund manager sentiment rises to its highest level since February.
3. Russian President Putin: A reduction in the benchmark interest rate should be a natural process.
4. Strike disrupts the announcement process; Bank of Canada cancels media preview of interest rate decision.
5. South Korean Finance Minister: Plans to prepare measures and systems for offshore won trading by early next year.
6. Japanese retail bets on the dollar hit a near 20-year high; the effectiveness of Japanese authorities' intervention in the foreign exchange market may be limited.
7. Sources: India has attracted nearly $10 billion in funds through its foreign exchange deposit scheme for overseas Indians.
