Crédit Agricole says markets broadly expect the Bank of Korea to lift the policy
rate by 25bps to 2.75% on July 16. The central bank has repeatedly underlined
the case for tightening, so market participants will watch closely for any hints
on the timing and terminal rate of this cycle. Given the BOK only updates macro
forecasts and its six‑month forward guidance in August, and global oil prices
have eased since the last meeting, Crédit Agricole expects the bank to avoid
signaling an August follow‑up move and to be more likely to act in October. At
the July meeting the BOK may indicate scope for further hikes but is unlikely to
provide a firm timetable, preferring to await additional data.
