CNN Washington senior reporter Aaron Blake says over the past 4½ months
President Trump and his inner circle repeatedly made confident predictions about
the Iran war that were quickly proven wrong. Major misjudgments include: Trump’s
claim the US would “take over” the Strait of Hormuz and act as a toll collector
charging 20% — a position at odds with earlier US policy and implying an
impractical long-term military presence; repeated forecasts the fighting would
end in “four to five weeks,” while conflict has persisted beyond four months;
assertions that Iranian leaders became suddenly “very rational” after last
month’s memorandum; initial US downplaying of a Hormuz blockade despite
continued disruption and economic impact from Iran’s actions; Energy Department
remarks that gasoline would “soon” fall below $3/gal, which has not occurred;
early claims of uncontested US control of Iranian airspace, contradicted when
Iran shot down two US aircraft in early April; and repeated statements that Iran
was “begging” for a deal, whereas Tehran has pressed for major concessions and
rejected last month’s memorandum.
