Aaron Blake, a senior CNN correspondent in Washington, D.C., stated that over the past four and a half months, Trump and his associates have made numerous confident predictions about the war with Iran, only to be quickly proven wrong by reality. Trump himself, in particular, often seems clueless about the war he initiated.
Mistake 1: The U.S. will control the Strait of Hormuz.
On Monday, Trump made a startling statement, confidently announcing that the U.S. would soon "take over" the Strait of Hormuz and act as its "guardian," charging a 20% toll for passing ships. The problem is that this completely contradicts his administration's previous stance and implies a long-term U.S. military presence in the strait, which is clearly unrealistic.
Mistake 2: The war will end quickly. Early in the war, Trump repeatedly predicted it would last "only four to five weeks." Now, four and a half months later, a ceasefire remains a distant prospect.
Mistake 3: Iranian leaders have suddenly become "rational."
After the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding last month, Trump and Vice President Vance spoke as if Iranian leaders had suddenly become enlightened. On June 16, Trump stated, "The people we're dealing with are very rational," and added that Iranian leaders were "easy to get along with" and "not radical." This quickly became a laughing stock.
Mistake Four: The Strait of Hormuz is not a problem.
When Iran used the threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, the US government initially dismissed it, claiming the blockade was unsustainable. However, the strait was never truly safe. While Iran's blockade had a greater impact on other countries, it also caused significant damage to the US economy and gave Iran greater leverage in negotiations with the US.
Mistake Five: Gasoline prices will soon fall below $3 per gallon.
This blind optimism regarding the strait was also reflected in the misjudgment of oil prices. US Energy Secretary Wright stated that gasoline prices would return to below $3 "not long after." Now, more than four months later, oil prices have still not fallen below $3.
Mistake Six: The US has absolute control over Iranian airspace.
In the early stages of the conflict, Trump and Hergé claimed that Iran was militarily defeated and that US troops could fly over its airspace at will without risk. But by early April, Iran had successfully shot down two US military aircraft.
Mistake Seven: Iran Desires a Deal.
Trump has claimed dozens of times that Iran is "begging" for a deal. But the past three months have seen the opposite; Iran has not only insisted on significant concessions but has also rejected the seemingly generous terms in last month's memorandum.
