The IMF released a report comparing the current US-Iran war with all major oil crises in modern history. The chart shows that, in terms of the scale of supply losses, the cumulative oil supply disruptions caused by the current Middle East wars have exceeded those of all major oil crises of the past few decades. Specifically:
- Russia-Ukraine War: Supply reduction of approximately 100 million barrels
- Iraq War: Supply reduction of approximately 400 million barrels
- 1973 Oil Crisis: Supply reduction of approximately 500 million barrels
- Iranian Islamic Revolution: Supply reduction of approximately 700 million barrels
- Gulf War: Supply reduction of approximately 1.5 billion barrels
The current US-Iran war has resulted in a reduction of 2.3 billion barrels of crude oil supply, and this is continuing to expand. Current crude oil prices have not fully reflected this supply shock. This is due to: ① suppressed global demand; ② increased crude oil production outside the Gulf region offsetting some of the shortfall; ③ countries continuing to use commercial and strategic oil reserves to buffer the supply shortage. However, the IMF warns that these buffering factors have significantly weakened, and the buffer space is almost exhausted.
