The fragile calm between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, established since the 2022 ceasefire, is facing its most severe test, with recent military clashes threatening to pull both sides back onto the path of confrontation.
The Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia's Abha airport on Monday night in retaliation for Saudi airstrikes earlier that day on Sana'a International Airport in Yemen's capital. The Houthis blamed Saudi Arabia for the attack. The airstrike reportedly occurred when an Iranian passenger plane carrying a Houthi delegation was en route from Tehran, Iran, to Sana'a. The plane eventually landed at Hodeidah Airport in northwestern Yemen, which is controlled by the Houthis. Direct flights between Tehran and Sana'a have been suspended for over a decade, and Saudi Arabia has consistently opposed their restoration, fearing that Iran would use the opportunity to supply the Houthis with weapons, technology, or advisors.
This escalation exposes the underlying tensions beneath the ceasefire agreement—which has never evolved into a comprehensive peace agreement. The informal ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis took effect in April 2022, prior to Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. Although Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have avoided direct conflict since the ceasefire took effect, they have failed to reach a final political solution, and key disputes over Yemen's future and power distribution remain unresolved.
Nadwa Al-Dawsari, associate research fellow at the Middle East Institute, stated that the current signals are clear: Iran is testing red lines, challenging both the Saudi and Yemeni governments, while attempting to establish a new reality in the region. The ceasefire agreement is hanging by a thread. It has never been fully sustainable because the two sides have fundamental disagreements about its nature. Saudi Arabia views the arrangement as a ceasefire between the internationally recognized Yemeni government and the Houthis, with Riyadh acting as mediator and guarantor; the Houthis, on the other hand, see it as a direct agreement with Saudi Arabia and continue to refuse to recognize the legitimacy of the Yemeni government. Given the Houthis' long-standing ambitions, their refusal to share power, and their continued efforts to reshape the domestic and regional balance of power to their own advantage, a new round of confrontation is inevitable.
Mohammed Al-Basha, founder of the risk consultancy Basha Report, predicts that Iran and the Houthis may attempt to resume direct flights between Tehran and Sana'a next week. If this is the case, the Saudi-led coalition is expected to respond in kind. Both sides have shown a degree of restraint. The Saudi-led coalition may ultimately allow Houthi aircraft to land at Hodeidah airport. Meanwhile, the damage to Sana'a airport is mainly limited to the runway, and the airport infrastructure and equipment are largely intact, meaning that repairs may be completed relatively quickly. The Houthis chose Abha airport instead of attacking major airports such as Jeddah or Riyadh—this avoided a larger escalation that would have been triggered by an attack on a major international airport.
