An Australian National University professor said Iran treats the conflict as existential and, despite economic strain and diplomatic pressure, is unlikely to accept a ceasefire unless it secures explicit guarantees for its safety. He noted Iran’s lon

2026-07-17

An Australian National University professor said Iran treats the conflict as existential and, despite economic strain and diplomatic pressure, is unlikely to accept a ceasefire unless it secures explicit guarantees for its safety. He noted Iran’s long experience under sanctions and domestic production capacity, and said Tehran is unlikely to show weakness or yield even after military attrition. U.S. media report Iran rapidly resumed drone production after the April ceasefire; some analysts say Tehran could replenish drone inventories within months. An International Crisis Group security expert warned the rapid consumption of key U.S. munitions, including Patriot interceptors and Tomahawk cruise missiles, is striking and raises concern for future contingencies with other great powers. Both sides therefore face pressure points that make a prolonged war costly, though the ANU professor said the U.S. is suffering greater reputational damage as global observers see limits to its ability to resolve the Iran issue.

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