US Dollar:
1. US retail sales rose modestly in June, with declining gasoline spending dragging down overall performance.
2. Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 11th were 208,000, the lowest since the week ending May 2nd, 2026.
3. Federal Reserve – Logan: Currently believes that moderate rate hikes will help better balance the outlook and risks. Moderate tightening now is better than having to tighten significantly in the future. Jefferson: In a scenario where inflation fails to begin to cool, the policy stance may need to be re-examined to ensure price stability. Schmid: Inflation remains a concern. Disagrees that the Fed should “ignore” certain types of price increases.
Euro:
1. Survey: Most economists expect Lagarde to complete her term as ECB president.
2. The Eurozone trade deficit widened further in May, reaching a new high since January 2023.
3. According to a Reuters poll: All 74 economists said the ECB will keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% on July 23rd. Of 74 economists surveyed, 52 predict the European Central Bank will raise interest rates again in 2026.
Other:
1. Argentine President Milley confirms he will seek re-election.
2. Traders say the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may be selling dollars to curb the rupee's depreciation.
3. RBI Governor: Inflation remains high. The Middle East situation and monsoon risks pose challenges.
4. Bank of England Deputy Governor: Weak UK economy reduces the risk of inflation stickiness; interest rate hikes are not necessary at this time.
5. Turkish central bank data shows that as of July 10, total foreign exchange reserves were $67.12 billion, up from $61.95 billion a week earlier.
6. Swiss National Bank meeting minutes: GDP growth is projected to be around 1% in 2026 and around 1.5% in 2027. A renewed escalation in the Middle East could significantly weaken economic activity and increase upward pressure on the Swiss franc.
7. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: Ready to take action to address currency volatility if necessary. Specific foreign exchange levels will not be discussed. Interest rate changes are market-determined. Monetary policy is determined by the Bank of Japan.
8. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi: The government will take measures to encourage various entities, including households and pension funds such as the GPIF (Government Pension Investment Fund of Japan), to invest in Japanese financial assets.
