SpaceX (SPCX.O) completed the largest IPO last month, briefly rallied, then slid
below its $135 IPO price. The report argues the stock could fall another 30% by
2028. First, IPO-driven FOMO is fading: shares have fallen about 40% from a
Roughly $225 peak as investors pivot from narrative to fundamentals. Second,
SpaceX’s AI strategy underpins its ~$1.8 tln valuation but is loss-making:
management cites an AI TAM of $28.5 tln (AI-related $26.5 tln), yet 2025 AI
revenue was $3.2 bln with an operating loss of $6.4 bln, implying continued
heavy investment and limited near-term profit contribution. Third, competitive
risk is rising after China and Japan completed tests of reusable rockets,
narrowing SpaceX’s technological lead even if rivals are not targeting US
government contracts. Conclusion: fundamentals remain solid, but a $1.8 tln
market cap looks aggressive; a 30% decline to roughly $1.26 tln by 2028 (about
18 months) would leave valuation better aligned with execution risk.
