Markets are increasingly doubting prior certainties, a dynamic amplifying the
current equity decline. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% this week, the Nasdaq Composite
dropped 2.9% and the Nasdaq-100 lost 2.7%, putting July on track to be the worst
in over 20 years. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down about 20% from
its June 22 peak and entered bear-market territory on Friday. Asian pain is
visible: KOSPI is off more than 25% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged 4% on Friday,
entering a technical correction. The sell-off lacks a single clear catalyst;
cited drivers include concerns that chip-sector gains in 1H ran too far, large
tech borrowing to fund capex plans, and persistent macro uncertainty under new
Fed policy. BTIG chief market technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky warned a
summer-style correction similar to 2024 could push the S&P 500 below its 200-day
moving average at 6,983 points. If that occurs, semiconductors would likely
weaken further and recent breadth trades and the Magnificent Seven could stall
and turn down. Market action appears to be moving in that direction despite the
absence of an obviously dangerous headline.
