Nuveen global strategist Laura Cooper says that after June’s rate hike the ECB
is likely to hold rates at this week’s meeting while retaining a tightening
bias. She warns the bank remains open to further tightening if renewed tensions
push energy prices higher. Cooper notes disinflation has been stronger than
feared: PMI price components show little sign of re‑acceleration and
producer‑price data confirm fading upstream cost pressures, which support a
pause. The key risk is renewed commodity‑supply disruption that could rekindle
energy‑price pressure just as the ECB gains confidence in the disinflation path.
