On July 21, the Buffett Indicator (CSI 300 market capitalization/GDP) rebounded to 88.06%, still fluctuating near the upper end of its ten-year trading range in the long term. The equity risk premium (ERP) of the CSI 300 Index, a stock-bond ratio indicator, fell to 5.17%, remaining near its 5.2% fluctuation center since July and at the lower end of its trading range since October 2024, suggesting that the current stock market's yield advantage relative to government bonds is not significant.
Note: 1. The Buffett Indicator compares total stock market capitalization to GDP to determine whether the stock market is currently overvalued. Generally, 70-100% is considered a normal valuation; below this range is undervalued, and above is overvalued.
2. The risk premium (ERP) of the CSI 300 Index is mainly compared with the returns of the CSI 300 and the yield of government bonds. Statistics from the past 10 years show that this indicator has a clear inverse relationship with the stock index. Every time the stock market is in the bottom area, the risk premium exceeds 6%. That is, when ERP ≥ 6%, the stock market has investment value, while when ERP ≤ 4%, the stock market is often close to or at a stage high, the investment value is low, and there is even a risk of correction.
