Quilter Cheviot analyst Richard Carter says the Bank of England is expected to
keep Bank Rate at 3.75% while awaiting clear signs of the Middle East conflict’s
impact. UK CPI eased to 2.6% in June after oil briefly fell following a US‑Iran
ceasefire. Carter warned a renewed full‑scale conflict remains possible and
would continue to pressure inflation. Markets price roughly 40bp of cumulative
BoE hikes in 2026.