Quilter Cheviot analyst Richard Carter says the Bank of England is expected to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% while awaiting clear signs of the Middle East conflict’s impact. UK CPI eased to 2.6% in June after oil briefly fell following a US‑Iran ceasefire.

2026-07-22

Quilter Cheviot analyst Richard Carter says the Bank of England is expected to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% while awaiting clear signs of the Middle East conflict’s impact. UK CPI eased to 2.6% in June after oil briefly fell following a US‑Iran ceasefire. Carter warned a renewed full‑scale conflict remains possible and would continue to pressure inflation. Markets price roughly 40bp of cumulative BoE hikes in 2026.