RSM UK analyst Thomas Pugh said June inflation fell to 2.6%, effectively ruling
out a Bank of England rate hike next week. The drop was driven mainly by
declines in food, fuel and energy prices, while services inflation — the key
gauge of domestic price pressures — was in line with expectations. Pugh expects
inflation to rebound to about 3.3% in autumn as rising energy costs,
supply‑chain strains and food-price pressures feed through, with upside risk if
oil spikes. He expects Bank Rate to remain on hold and sees no rate cuts before
2027.
