The BIS annual report points out that AI investment is increasingly reliant on debt. The five major cloud computing giants are projected to spend over $1 trillion on AI capital in 2025-2026, with investment growth exceeding that of profits and free cash flow. Meanwhile, hundreds of billions of dollars are circulating through "revolving financing": cloud vendors or chip companies invest in AI labs, which in turn commit to purchasing their computing power and chips. Charts show that such arrangements account for the bulk of AI lab spending and chip manufacturers' expected revenue, and nearly half of the related revenue of cloud computing giants.
The credit market has begun to repric. Since the beginning of 2025, the five-year CDS spread for BBB-rated and above AI companies has cumulatively increased by about 5 basis points, while the North American investment-grade BBB index has decreased by about 13 basis points, a divergence of nearly 18 basis points. This is not a formal downgrade by rating agencies, but rather a demand for higher risk compensation from the bond market. If AI revenue falls short of expectations or capital expenditure slows, the cycle of mutual support between funding, orders, and revenue may reverse, transmitting pressure to data center and supply chain debt.
