I. Iranian Military Strength: Trump claims Iran's military capabilities have been destroyed, but Iran still possesses the ability to retaliate.
1. Trump's Assessment
—March 9: "Everything they had is gone, including the leadership," Iran "has no navy, no air force, no air defense equipment, no radar, no communication systems"; April 25: "They have no army, no leadership"; May 1: "The Iranian army has completely disappeared," "We have completely destroyed their army"; July 8: "They have nothing left."
2. Facts—Iran is still able to launch military operations, continuing to attack US forces, US regional allies, and commercial vessels, causing US military casualties.
II. Duration of the War: Originally expected to end in four weeks, but has lasted nearly five months.
1. Trump's Assessment
—March 1: "This is a process that takes about four weeks, or less," "Our plan is to finish in four to five weeks"; March 26: "We estimate it will take about four to six weeks to complete the mission," "significantly ahead of schedule"; May 19: "We will end this war very quickly."
2. Fact—Nearly five months after the start of the war, the conflict continues, with Trump recently threatening further escalation of military action.
III. Strait of Hormuz: Trump claims the US controls the strait, but Iran retains significant influence.
1. Trump's assessment
—July 13: "The Strait of Hormuz is open, and it will remain open with or without Iran." "We are taking over the strait."
July 20: "We control the strait. Iran controls nothing."
2. Fact—Iran claimed responsibility this week for attacks on ships near the strait. The Joint Maritime Information Center, led by the US Navy, reported that commercial shipping activity in the strait fell to a three-week low in the past 48 hours.
IV. Oil Prices: Trump claims oil prices fell rapidly, but rebounded after the ceasefire broke down.
1. Trump's assessment
—June 17: "Oil prices have fallen sharply." "Oil prices will soon be back to levels seen four months ago."
July 8: "Oil prices are falling like rocks."
July 19: Oil prices are "falling rapidly."
July 22: "Oil prices will be lower than when the war started."
2. Facts—Oil prices once fell below pre-war levels, but rose again as the ceasefire broke down and the US and Iran resumed attacks on each other.
