Oil's surge and rising inflation worries after an escalation in the Middle East have increased market expectations of Bank of England tightening. LSEG data show markets fully price a 25bp BoE hike in November and assign a 93% probability to a further

2026-07-23

Oil's surge and rising inflation worries after an escalation in the Middle East have increased market expectations of Bank of England tightening. LSEG data show markets fully price a 25bp BoE hike in November and assign a 93% probability to a further hike in December. Last week traders priced a cumulative 38bp of tightening for 2026.