Four market-relevant judgments by Trump have been at odds with subsequent
events: Iranian military capability, conflict duration, control of the Strait of
Hormuz, and oil prices. On Iranian military capability: Trump repeatedly
asserted Iran’s forces and command had been destroyed (statements on Mar 9, Apr
25, May 1 and Jul 8). In reality Iran retains strike capability and has
continued attacks on US forces, regional US allies and commercial vessels,
causing US casualties. On conflict duration: Trump forecast the campaign would
concluded in roughly four weeks (Mar 1, Mar 26) and said it would end quickly
(May 19). The conflict has persisted for nearly five months and Trump has
recently threatened further escalation. On the Strait of Hormuz: Trump said the
The US was controlling the strait and that Iran could not interfere (Jul 13, Jul
20). Iran has claimed responsibility for recent attacks near the strait, and a
US Navy–led maritime information center reported commercial shipping activity
fell to a three-week low in the past 48 hours. On oil prices: Trump repeatedly
said prices were falling back toward pre-conflict levels (statements Jun 17, Jul
8, Jul 19, Jul 22). Oil briefly dipped below pre-conflict levels but has since
rebounded after the ceasefire collapsed and attacks resumed.
