US Dollar:
1. US initial jobless claims fell to a near four-year low.
2. US Treasury: No major trading partners will manipulate currencies by 2025.
3. Morgan Stanley: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady next week.
Euro:
1. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but left room for a September rate hike.
2. The ECB is reportedly considering raising reserve requirements to alleviate pressure from huge losses.
3. Sources: German Chancellor Merz may announce a cabinet reshuffle on Friday.
4. ECB Governing Council member Kocher: If the inflation outlook worsens and inflation expectations also deteriorate, action will be necessary.
5. ECB Governing Council member Nagel: The ECB is in a favorable position and should not make any pre-commitments to interest rate changes before the September meeting.
Pound Sterling:
1. UK retail sales grew strongly in June, again exceeding expectations.
Japanese Yen:
1. US Treasury: Despite the narrowing US-Japan interest rate differential, the yen's weakness persists; excessive yen volatility is undesirable.
2. Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry: Confirmed with US Commerce Secretary Rutnick that no additional tariffs will be imposed outside of the agreement.
3. Sources: The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its policy guidance, pledging to continue raising interest rates.
4. Capital Economics: Japan's July PMI shows the economy was unaffected by the oil price shock.
Korean Won:
1. South Korean President pushes for adjustments to real estate tax and loan policies, willing to bear "political costs."
Other:
1. Survey: Short positions in the Korean won decreased due to optimism in the semiconductor sector; short positions in the Thai baht and New Taiwan dollar increased.
2. Turkey kept interest rates unchanged due to the threat of war with Iran in its anti-inflation process.
3. The South African Reserve Bank unexpectedly decided to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged.
4. Thailand's Ministry of Finance: Projects Thailand's GDP growth at 2.5% in 2026 (April forecast: 1.6%).
