1. Achieving Economic Diversification: In 2022, crude oil accounted for 40% of Saudi Arabia's GDP. The country's leaders have long believed that the nation's economic survival depends on reducing its reliance on fossil fuel exports. Despite its abundant natural resources, Saudi Arabia has recorded fiscal deficits in all but one of the past decade's years. The Iraq War exposed the risks of heavy oil dependence. If Saudi Arabia were granted permission to enrich uranium, whether extracted domestically or imported, it could use these materials to help meet its growing energy needs, freeing up more fossil fuel reserves for export to other countries.
2. Advancing a Modernization Vision: A decade ago, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced an ambitious plan to transform Saudi Arabia, declaring its intention to end the country's "dependence" on oil. These plans, known as the "Vision 2030" initiative, include major financial reforms, cultural transformation, and infrastructure projects. Saudi leaders have also announced ambitious climate targets. In 2021, the country pledged to source half of its electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030. These goals may seem unattainable now, but Saudi leaders likely still view the nuclear enrichment program as part of a green modernization vision they project to foreign governments, businesses, and their own people.
3. Enhance Prestige: Saudi leaders understand that developing a domestic civilian nuclear energy program (with the potential for weapons manufacturing) will also impact the region's regional and global standing. Even without producing weapons-grade uranium, Saudi leaders may still see the nuclear program as a first step towards building a deterrent against nuclear-armed states. The agreement also allows Saudi Arabia to deepen its ties with the United States. During years of negotiations with US leaders regarding the terms of Saudi Arabia's potential nuclear program, Saudi Arabia repeatedly threatened to cooperate with other countries, such as Russia, in developing the technology.
