Odds of a new ceasefire between the US and Iran appear to have risen after reports that US President Trump decided to pause recent strikes on southern Iran. Traders on prediction market Polymarket price a 75% probability of a ceasefire by Aug. 31, 20

1. Monday: ① Data: Germany's July IFO Business Climate Index; UK's July CBI Retail Sales Balance; US June Durable Goods Orders (MoM); US July Dallas Fed Business Activity Index. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: US ADP Employment Change (Weekend) to July 11; US May FHFA House Price Index (MoM); US May S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index (YoY, Unadjusted); US July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; US July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. ② Event: RBA Governor Bullock speaks. 3. Wednesday ① Data: US API crude oil inventories for the week ending July 24; Australia's June unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate; Switzerland's July ZEW investor confidence index; UK June Bank of England mortgage approvals; US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 24, US EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventories for the week ending July 24, US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserves for the week ending July 24. ② Event: SK Hynix releases Q2 financial results. 4. Thursday: ① Data: US Federal Reserve interest rate decision (to July 29); France's preliminary Q2 GDP annual rate; Switzerland's July KOF Leading Economic Index; Germany's preliminary Q2 unadjusted GDP annual rate; Eurozone's preliminary Q2 GDP annual rate, Eurozone's June unemployment rate, Eurozone's July industrial sentiment index, Eurozone's July economic sentiment index; UK Bank of England interest rate decision (to July 30); Germany's preliminary July CPI monthly rate; US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 25; US June core PCE price index annual rate, US June personal spending monthly rate, US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate preliminary; US Q2 real personal consumption expenditure quarterly rate preliminary; US Q2 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate preliminary; US June core PCE price index monthly rate; US EIA natural gas storage for the week ending July 24. ② Events: Bank of Canada releases monetary policy meeting minutes; Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision, Fed Chairman Warsh holds monetary policy press conference [simultaneous interpretation]; Bank of England announces interest rate decision, meeting minutes and monetary policy report, Bank of England Governor Bailey holds monetary policy press conference. ③ Earnings Reports: Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and ARM release their Q2 2026 earnings reports after the US stock market closes on July 29. 5. Friday: ① Data: Japan's June unemployment rate; China's July official manufacturing PMI; UK's July Nationwide house price index month-on-month; Switzerland's June real retail sales year-on-year; France's July CPI month-on-month preliminary reading; Germany's July seasonally adjusted unemployment figures, Germany's July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate; Eurozone's July CPI year-on-year preliminary reading, Eurozone's July CPI month-on-month preliminary reading; Canada's May GDP month-on-month; US Q2 labor cost index quarter-on-quarter; US July Chicago PMI; US July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading; US July one-year inflation rate expectation final reading; Bank of Japan's target interest rate until July 31. ② Events: A new round of price adjustments for domestic refined oil products will begin; the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference on monetary policy. ③ Earnings Reports: Amazon and Apple will release their earnings reports after the US stock market closes on July 30. 6. Saturday: ① Data: Total number of US oil rigs for the week ending July 31. 7. Sunday: ① Events: OPEC+ oil-producing countries hold their monthly meeting on oil policy.

Iran's embassy in France said the Strait of Hormuz is a heritage passed down through generations.