CITIC Securities says China’s move during the 15th Five‑Year Plan to extend
next‑generation communications into integrated air‑space‑sea‑ground networks is
turning commercial space into a significant infrastructure investment area.
Reusable rockets, represented by Long March‑10B, are entering an intensive
technology‑validation phase and are likely to drive material reductions in
launch costs; CITIC expects a LEO satellite constellation deployment peak in
2028–2030. Upstream manufacturing and capacity buildout are estimated to require
more than 1.7 trillion yuan of productive investment. The industry is likely to
follow an S‑curve: after concentrated constellation deployment the sector’s
focus should shift from manufacturing and launches to terminal operations and
services, with large addressable markets for direct‑to‑handset connectivity.
Near‑term market catalysts include reusable‑rocket re‑flights and IPOs; monitor
policy actions to shore up launch capacity and cultivate commercial demand,
since application scale will determine longer-term upside.
