On July 24th, the Buffett Index (CSI 300 market capitalization/GDP) fell to 86.4%, near its lowest level this year; the equity risk premium (ERP) of the CSI 300 Index, a stock-bond ratio indicator, rose to 5.23%, having fluctuated around 5.2% since July, placing it at the lower end of its fluctuation range since October 2024, suggesting that the current advantage of stocks relative to government bonds is neutral.
-------- Note: 1. The Buffett Index compares total stock market capitalization to GDP to determine whether the stock market is currently overvalued. Generally, 70-100% is considered a normal valuation, below this range is considered undervalued, and above this range is considered overvalued.
2. The risk premium (ERP) of the CSI 300 Index is mainly compared with the returns of the CSI 300 and the yield of government bonds. Statistics from the past 10 years show that this indicator has a clear inverse relationship with the stock index. Every time the stock market is in the bottom area, the risk premium exceeds 6%. That is, when ERP ≥ 6%, the stock market has a high investment value, while when ERP ≤ 4%, the stock market is often close to or at a stage high, and the investment value is low or even a correction risk should be taken seriously.
