Concord Resources research director Duncan Hobbs said the aluminum market is
far larger than 25 years ago, leaving current LME inventories extremely low
relative to market size. LME aluminum on-warrants were 245,350 tons on July
24, the lowest since April 2025. Hobbs warned the market may be "overly
complacent" about supply risk despite forecasts of a 2027–28 surplus; ongoing
Strait of Hormuz disruptions are hampering Gulf smelters' imports of feedstock
and exports of metal.