HSBC Research cuts CATL (03750.HK) H‑share target price to HK$783 from HK$790
and keeps a buy rating, saying the recent pullback may be excessive. Q2 results
broadly met expectations: EV and energy‑storage system shipments rose 44% and
90% YoY. H1 capacity utilization remained c.95%; management says some customer
demand is unmet and 764 GWh of capacity is under construction. HSBC expects
rising capacity plus H2 seasonality to support earnings and views market concern
on ESS as possibly overdone. SNE Research shows CATL’s global ESS battery share
rose to 30% in Q1 2026 from 27% in Q1 2025. HSBC raises revenue forecasts for
2026–28 by 6–10%, trims gross‑margin forecasts by 0.9–1.3 percentage points, and
revises net‑profit estimates: 2026 -2%, 2027 +5%, 2028 +4%.
