Citi sets a 0–3 month gold target of $4,500/oz. Its baseline projects India’s Q3
gold imports will remain weak despite typical seasonal restocking, citing ample
scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment and local price discounts that curb
fresh imports. The target assumes easing of Strait of Hormuz tensions and a Fed
shift toward a less-hawkish stance. Near-term downside risks include a major
re‑escalation, AI-driven de‑risking and continued Fed hawkishness.
